In the last few weeks, the 2018 crypto consensus has been touted as the catalyst that will push up bitcoin (BTC) to over $10,000, and kick start the next Bull Run. But a few days to it, bitcoin started dropping and hit lows of $8300. Now that consensus has started, bitcoin is yet to show any major signs of an uptrend. This has got investors confused, since many were expecting bitcoin to be creating new highs at the moment. So what’s happening? Is the much awaited consensus bull run a flop? Absolutely not! There will be multiple deals and announcements made at Consensus, but their impact will not be instant.
The biggest challenge that crypto space is facing right now is that of hype. There is so much hype around specific events that many people no longer take their time to study the price, and understand what information it is conveying. A glance at Bitcoin’s long-term charts shows that the price is yet to break out of the long-term bearish trend. After failing to push above the $10,000 price level in the recent rally, bitcoin (BTC) has pretty much formed a lower low. The previous low was at around $11,500.
In essence, the fact that bitcoin is still struggling to make any major push even after all the hype around the Consensus event, could be an indicator that the bear run may be losing steam, but it’s not yet over. Any announcements that come out of the Consensus could take time to reflect on the price charts. In short, the next Bull Run won’t be as drastic as many would like to believe.
Secondly, anyone who has been in the financial markets for some time knows that anytime there is so much optimism around a given event, the markets never meets expectations. That’s because such moments usually tend to be very predictable, and they give smart money an opportunity to make money by doing the exact opposite of what the masses are doing. The financial markets never reward the masses, and crypto is no exception.
With that said, this should not be construed to be FUD against bitcoin, or pouring water on the potential of Consensus to uplift the market. However, if you are getting into bitcoin right now, do so with a long-term view. Sure, consensus will catalyze the market going forward, but the climb back to the top might not be as drastic as many have been made to believe. It could even drop further, and find a more stable support level, before the push back to the top. Such price fluctuations could hurt short-term investors getting into the market based on the belief that consensus is about to do magic, and push bitcoin (BTC) back to over $15k instantly.
The dynamics of crypto have changed after the 2017 rally, and the next rise could be gradual. So gradual that many people will only discover it has happened way after it the fact. That’s why having a long-term view of this market is the best approach right now. By the way, don’t sell your house to invest in crypto, put in what you can afford to lose.